As expected, the euro rejected the 1.2450-level in a first attempt but the single currency was able to hold above $ 1.24 ahead of the upcoming ECB monetary policy announcement. While no changes in interest rates are expected, the focus will be on a fresh set of economic projections and ECB President Draghi’s commentary on what could happen to the central bank’s QE program which is due to run until September.
There is still a high degree of ECB optimism in the market and given that optimistic sentiment market participants may tend to push the EUR/USD higher even though Mario Draghi is unlikely to signal an early exit to their QE program. Traders should bear in mind that making significant adjustments to their communication right now could cause confusion which is why ECB policymakers could maintain a cautious stance for the time being. Mr. Draghi is not in a hurry to announce a change right now. Therefore, the ECB could hold off until the summer to start talking about unwinding QE and t
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