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Confirming its willingness to exempt Canada, Mexico and the EU from aluminum and steel tariffs until June 1, 2018, the Trump administration is giving a break to its key commercial partners, as it is expected to start hard talks with Chinese negotiators as early as Thursday. In that context, the Canadian economy is doing well, supported by contained y/y core inflation at +1.90% and accelerating industrial production activities in March. As given by recent progression in gross domestic product (GDP) data given at +0.40% m/m and +3% y/y in February, Canadian economic growth is expected to continue in that direction due to continued rebound in mining, oil and gas extraction activities in April. Bank of Canada GDP growth expectations of 2% for 2018 might probably be a bit too conservative given current upturn.

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