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On Tuesday night, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum won Florida’s Democratic gubernatorial primary in an upset, startling the political establishment and earning immediate comparisons to upstart congressional candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. In retrospect, though, Gillum’s unexpected defeat of his closest rival, Gwen Graham, probably shouldn’t have been shocking. Graham, a moderate one-term congresswoman with deep ties to Florida politics, ran a professional but insipid campaign that failed to ignite a groundswell of support. Other competitors in the race included Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, a self-described “radical centrist” and millionaire who blitzed the airwaves with bland ads, and Jeff Greene, a Palm Beach billionaire indulging in a vanity run. Levine and Greene siphoned votes from Graham, allowing Gillum, who positioned himself as a different, more progressive kind of Democrat, to claim victory. Gillum beat Graham by about 45,000 votes; had Levine or Greene dropped out, Graham may have won handily.

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