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Traders who expect the U.S. to hand out waivers allowing certain nations to continue buying oil from the Islamic Republic, "are making a huge miscalculation," Joe McMonigle, head of energy policy at Hedgeye, said in a note. "We see more than a 50 percent chance of an early enforcement of Iran sanctions to send a message and incentivize others to get Iran imports to zero," McMonigle said. The international benchmark could even hit $90 a barrel for the first time since 2014, before settling back to around $85, McMonigle said.

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