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50 days before the official divorce of the UK from the EU, it seems that nothing has fundamentally evolved from 2 months ago, when controversies over the initial Withdrawal Agreement forced Prime Minister Theresa May to postpone the vote to January 2019. The Irish backstop is still a stumbling block for the House of Commons.

We don’t see the Bank of England changing its monetary position, since it adopted a “wait and see” approach in December. In case of a hard Brexit, the BoE would most likely not raise its key rate but cut it if the economy requires, regardless of inflation. In the event of a sharp pound devaluation, the bank might do the opposite in order to curb a collapse. If a constructive agreement is found, the BoE might hike its key rate to maintain inflation within the target range of 2% amid strong wage growth and low unemployment rates. We see the GBP negatively, since growth forecasts (November projections for GDP: 0.30% Q4 2018 and 1.70% for next 3 years) are expected to

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